Real Estate Forecast for Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington. Let's make some predictions.

By: Lindsay Smith

Real Estate Forecast for Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington. Let's make some predictions.

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real estate, buy sell love durham, oshawa real estate, durham region, market trends, buyer's market, seller's market, homes for sale near me, keller williams, real estate agent, agent experience, predictions, forecast

It is that time of year again when I stick my neck out and make a few predictions about the first 3 months of the new year that is quickly approaching. First, let me find that crystal ball… I know it is around here somewhere. Ahh, there it is. Let’s see what it says.

All kidding aside, it looks like the spring market, (in Real Estate the spring market comes from late January until May) for 2022 may be a repeat of what happened from the fall of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021.
Looking back to 2020, the year was one where everything that could possibly go sideways did. We started last year with a Seller's market, bidding wars, low inventory and people scrambling to get into homes. Then the world shut down. What that meant for local Real Estate, was our office shut down from mid-March until June. We were still allowed to sell homes, however, the restrictions were heavy, and the general public was so nervous very little was sold. Then June happened. It was like someone turned a light switch on, or the starting gun went off at the beginning of a horse race.  Here is what it looked like, month to month by sales for detached homes in Oshawa, Whitby, and Clarington:

February: 433
March: 514
April: 241
May: 378
June: 564

The drop in the number of sales took place in April/20 falling 50% from March as the pandemic settled into our business. As quickly as the drop happened, by the time Sep/20 rolled around we had sold a whopping 666 detached homes in the 30 day period!

While this is only part of the story, as homes were selling like crazy an opposite trend was starting to surface once the economy started to return. The number of homes for sale started to drop, and I mean the inventory dropped dramatically. Here is what the fall looked like for Oshawa, Whitby and Clarington homes for sale:
Homes for sale:

October: 377
November: 231
December: 95
January/21: 180

At year end, there were only 28 homes for sale in Oshawa! What this does to the market, when inventory drops to historic lows, and the Buyers are still out in full force aggressively buying property is the prices spike. This is simple supply/demand. Here is what happened to the prices, community by community:
Oshawa:
Year end 2020 - $724,000. January/21: $832,000 February: $856,000 March: $850,000 April: $858,000
Whitby:
Year end 2020 - $946,000 January/21: $1,060,000 February: $1,086,000 March: $1,060,000 April: $1,084,000
Clarington:
Year end 2020 - $787,500 January/21: $938,000 February: $914,600 March: $895,000 April: $935,000.
Our three communities jumped in value over $100,000 individually in the fall over spring of 2021! This should come as no surprise, with a robust Real Estate market and little inventory. Let’s look at where we are currently and see if we can predict the first few months of 2022, based on the above information.

Currently our inventory looks like this:
Oshawa – 88 detached homes for sale
Whitby – 50 homes for sale
Clarington – 57

Compared to October/20 we have about half the number of homes for sale. It is not too hard to determine that the prices will jump, similar as they did over the same time last year. See if we can get our heads around these numbers – if the prices jump from now until March/22 at the same rate as they did from Oct/20-Mar/21 here is what the optics will be;

Oshawa will jump from today’s value of $933,000 to $1,160,000;
Whitby from $1,230,000 to $1,446,000 and;
Clarington from $1,058,000 to $1,250,000.

I am forecasting a similar outcome with these increases taking place as we move into the spring. Even the threat of increased mortgage rates will not dampen the appetite Buyers have for homes it seems.
If history repeats itself, get your seat belts on Durham Region… SpaceX is not the only thing lifting off.
 
If you have questions about the above info, or any thoughts about the market I can be reached at lindsay@buyselllove.ca or www.buyselllove.ca
 
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